tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post528368506927502544..comments2023-10-27T20:27:57.900-04:00Comments on Kid Dynamite's World: Selection Bias In Economic DataKid Dynamitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-47409469485837310262010-04-10T15:35:48.710-04:002010-04-10T15:35:48.710-04:00KD,
For whatever reason, a bad methodology, SSS, ...KD,<br /><br />For whatever reason, a bad methodology, SSS, has become a gold standard for evaluating the trend in retail sales. <br /><br />I see at least 3 ways to make the "tool" better: 1) look at total sales, although this is probably not feasible in real time; 2) normalize the SSS by a sales weighted percentage of change in store number (to use your example of your 5 to 3 stores, your SSS would be reported as 60% of the reported SSS; 3) use state sales tax receipts, although not all states (go DE & NH) have a tax.<br /><br />Do most states report monthly sales tax revenue? If the retail sector were really getting, you'd expect states to be reporting higher revenues compared to prior projections.Mike Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-75848582317415573082010-04-09T18:08:52.275-04:002010-04-09T18:08:52.275-04:00KD,
working on a post on this right now. The whol...KD,<br />working on a post on this right now. The whole series of posts there today just seemed a little weird to me. I understand the premise; crazy times = tradeable but seems part of the problem to point out all the hazards of bailouts/backstops then go out and join hands with the people making it happen to make a buck.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-28386848001279104282010-04-09T18:02:20.067-04:002010-04-09T18:02:20.067-04:00GYC - I don't think that's Barry's mes...GYC - I don't think that's Barry's message. I think his point was that although all of may seem insane, it's still tradable - from the BULL side, not the bear side. I am absolutely fighting the tape, because i refuse to be the last guy holding the grenade when it explodes - and because of my "prudence" i'm paying... it sucks. i feel like a smart idiot. or a stupid smart guy. i don't know.<br /><br />i don't know if you read this recent thread of his:<br /><br />http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/retail-jobs-suggest-strong-recovery/<br /><br />but i corrected someone in the comments who said "Retail sales were up 9%"... they retorted that actual retail sales were up more than 11%... and i looked up the data, where i found something confirming that:<br /><br />http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf<br /><br />so the total numbers are actually LARGER than the same store numbers - which implies what - that there were store OPENINGS during the period? i simply CANNOT understand that. it's AMAZING. job cuts, cost cutting, great recession... yet chains are OPENING NEW STORES ???? <br /><br />remarkable.Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-60120657980369103362010-04-09T17:16:25.249-04:002010-04-09T17:16:25.249-04:00KD,
you are obviously blinded by your extreme bias...KD,<br />you are obviously blinded by your extreme bias and are fighting the tape all the way. Just admit things are getting truly amazing out there and get behind the government backed new world. Even though though I wrote a book about how bailouts were terrible, I was sharp enough to deploy all my cash at the March bottom and buy all the worst stuff to make a killing, which like I said in my book, was a huge moral hazard that must be stopped. Please learn the true way to profits, which will be out in my next book.<br />Barry Ritholtz<br />Sarcasm on HIGHEconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-21890660153121136522010-04-09T13:34:25.983-04:002010-04-09T13:34:25.983-04:00Really good post.
Its the interpretation of the r...Really good post.<br /><br />Its the interpretation of the raw data that separates the men from the boys.scharfyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18309882331114382248noreply@blogger.com