tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post577106491229702837..comments2023-10-27T20:27:57.900-04:00Comments on Kid Dynamite's World: Monday Morning QuarterbackKid Dynamitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-91655961880310598462009-11-17T09:20:43.109-05:002009-11-17T09:20:43.109-05:00great points, Kevin, and Steve Young made another ...great points, Kevin, and Steve Young made another good point last night on the MNF pregame - he said that he'd like the decision if it was made in the "normal flow of the game" - since Indy would have been caught totally off guard - but once N.E. called timeout, it gave Indy a chance to consider that the Pats might actually snap the ball, and the element of surprise was essentially lostKid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-18209237085840799752009-11-17T09:14:30.014-05:002009-11-17T09:14:30.014-05:00I think the analysis is weak and is deliberately s...I think the analysis is weak and is deliberately skewed toward making it look a good decision, since that is what is what will get those guys press (they were featured in the Boston Globe today).<br /><br />The key element is that they have stats for fourth and 2 from different parts of the field. But this is not a typical fourth and 2 from your own 28. In normal 4th and short situations (early to middle of the game) teams cannot overcommit to stopping a short yardage play and risk giving up a big play. In goal line 4th down situations this is also the case, which is why the conversion rate is lower as you get closer to the defense's end zone.<br /><br />It's also the case here, since there is no difference in outcome between a 3 yard gain and a Pats TD on the play. Thus, the pats make a conservative play call (they have no incentive to risk tyring to make a big play) trying to maximize any gain over 2 yards and Indy plays a more risky defense trying to stop a short gain. This is much more like 4th and goal from the 2 then a normal 4th and 2 in your own territory. Indy's defense still has to defend a long field, but they have little incentive to defend it well.<br /><br />So I disagree the pats are 70% to get the first, I think its closer to 50%.<br /><br />I looked and tried to find where they got their TD percents for two yardlines, 2 minutes left and 1 timeout and could not find it. But 30% and 53% seem not right. My intuition is that this spread should be bigger. I'd love to see the data that backs it up.<br /><br />None of this is going to change that it is a close decision, but they are overstating one side.Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-14758259590023883062009-11-17T04:19:49.711-05:002009-11-17T04:19:49.711-05:00Probably the most exciting game ever for the seaso...Probably the most exciting game ever for the season. Loved it. Indeed, one team's victory is a just the <a href="http://www.facebook.com/premiofoods?v=wall/" rel="nofollow"> fans' reward</a>. Things happen for a reason. Let's just stop bothering Bill anymore. Thanks for sharing.Mitchhttp://www.facebook.com/premiofoods?v=wallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-70216110985992621842009-11-16T17:52:02.219-05:002009-11-16T17:52:02.219-05:00KD,
had no idea you were a big Pats fan so yes, yo...KD,<br />had no idea you were a big Pats fan so yes, your opinion seemed clear to me!<br /><br />They lost fair and square and all that but...<br />I cannot help but wonder if the refs were like "they are going on 4th down, bad idea but could be a huge finish" and set that spot accordingly.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-51452817333438357032009-11-16T15:33:06.339-05:002009-11-16T15:33:06.339-05:00@bayne - that's a whole other issue - the fact...@bayne - that's a whole other issue - the fact that BB now has to explain himself to his defense, and explain that it wasn't about a lack of confidence (even though it was!)<br /><br />@Getyourselfconnected: i'm glad my view came across as unbiased - i'm anything but - i'm a huge pats fan, and I was on the phone with my dad as they were lining up to go for it screaming "WHAT THE FUCK ARE THEY DOING!?!?"<br /><br />and yes, i think that spot Faulk got was a total hometown call, and that the offense gets that spot at least 95% of the time in the NFL, but it's also a rule i hate (super generous forward progress marking) so I can't complainKid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-75718378657994162912009-11-16T15:16:50.704-05:002009-11-16T15:16:50.704-05:00KD,
Thanks for the unbiased look. Here in Patriot...KD,<br />Thanks for the unbiased look. Here in Patriots nation everyone is all whining about the call, but it was the right one. That call on Faulk was one of the more outragous subjective referee decisions I have ever seen, but thems the breaks. <br /><br />Anyone that thinks the Colts would not have scored with 2 full minutes left obviously were not watching the same game I was. The Colts would have scored from anywhere and that was what Bill B was thinking.<br /><br />You are right about the changed defensive set. Just as in the AFC title game in 2006, the Patriots were blowing out the Colts last night and Manning looked regular. Swap in a stupid dime zone defense instead of the press play they were playing and Presto! 21 points. Puzzling indeed.<br /><br />I am a confused, angry, and dissapointed Pats fan today. Still, good to see the offense putting it together finally. Maybe a rematch in the playofs? Can anyone beat the Bengals!?<br /><br />Sorry for the long comment, but that game was wild.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-39874107958411950962009-11-16T14:40:29.224-05:002009-11-16T14:40:29.224-05:00Good Analysis. I am not a numbers guy (as my poker...Good Analysis. I am not a numbers guy (as my poker game shows) but I liked Bill going for it. Sad it did not work out. Indy had been KILLING the Pats all quarter. Why anyone thinks the punting would have made this huge difference is odd to me. Obviously if we win he is the hero, if we lose he is the villain. It is always that way in Boston.SirFWALGManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01310209706844541719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14963913.post-85601828416862732732009-11-16T14:18:15.995-05:002009-11-16T14:18:15.995-05:00If I am a defensive player for the Pats I am pisse...If I am a defensive player for the Pats I am pissed at the lack of confidence the coach showed.<br /><br />If I am offensive player I am disappointed that we failed to execute when coach showed such confidence.<br /><br />But as an outside I am impressed that Coach was willing to make a decision where he will be lauded or shredded post game instead of players.Bayne_Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00102763865455445325noreply@blogger.com