The BLS released its December employment report today.
"In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged."
I've previously discussed why the unemployment rate itself is kinda silly, but the "number of unemployed persons" is an even more irrelevant number - here's why. Looking at Table A from the BLS release, you can see that the number of "unemployed" people actually decreased by 73k. Of course, the survey only counts people as unemployed it they remain a part of the labor force, when they are still looking for a job. If you are unemployed but you give up your job search, VOILA - the number of unemployed people goes down! Problem solved !! ????
| | | | Quarterly | | | averages | Monthly data | Nov.- Category |_________________|__________________________| Dec. | | | | | | change | III | IV | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | _________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________ | HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status |_____________________________________________________ | | | | | | Civilian labor force ....| 154,235| 153,544| 153,854| 153,720| 153,059| -661 Employment ............| 139,339| 138,138| 138,242| 138,381| 137,792| -589 Unemployment ..........| 14,895| 15,406| 15,612| 15,340| 15,267| -73 Not in labor force ......| 81,858| 83,195| 82,696| 83,022| 83,865| 843 |________|________|________|________|________|________
So, we can see in Table A that the size of the Civilian Labor Force decreased by 661,000, and that the number of employed persons decreased by 589,000. I would propose to you that it's probably a much better indication of the health of the economy to look at the trend in employment, which is an actual number, instead of the trend in "unemployment," which is a bastardized number.
We can get a further look at the real trend by looking at the employment/population ratio, as well as the labor force participation rate. Unfortunately, both continue to trend lower (I clipped only the Not Seasonally Adjusted data in the interest of space)
Not Seasonally adjusted Employment status, sex, and age Dec. Nov. Dec. 2008 2009 2009 TOTAL Civilian noninstitutional population......... 235,035 236,743 236,924 Civilian labor force....................... 154,349 153,539 152,693 Participation rate................... 65.7 64.9 64.4 Employed................................. 143,350 139,132 137,953 Employment-population ratio.......... 61.0 58.8 58.2 Unemployed............................... 10,999 14,407 14,740 Unemployment rate.................... 7.1 9.4 9.7 Not in labor force......................... 80,686 83,204 84,231 Persons who currently want a job......... 5,180 5,618 5,939
In plain English, a smaller percentage of the population is employed.
update: See Calculated Risk for pretty graphs on the subject.
-KD
1 comment:
nooooooo
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