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Thursday, February 03, 2011

It's Super Bowl Prop Betting Time!

Dov brought the massive list of Bodog Super Bowl Props to my attention.  In his professional handicapping style, Dov writes:

"The bookmakers have really taken the breadth of props to a new level. Check out my early faves and then click the link at the bottom to see some outrageous new props.

Some early hedged trades I've just drawn up:

"Melisma's Last Stand"
C. Aguilera national anthem OVER 1 minute 54 seconds (-130)
C. Aguilera to hold the word "brave" UNDER 6 seconds (Even, Ties push)

The O/U line has finally caught up to the long performances; this could be the last time we cash the OVER for a while...  I think she has it in her, but I'd look for most of the heavy lifting to be done around "banner yet wave...land of the free", then close it out clean. This pair is live to go 2-0...

"BMOC Straddle"
Aaron Rodgers to win SB MVP (3:2), equates to 40%
Big Ben to win SB MVP (7:2), equates to 22%

This gets one short the field at 38%, I like that.  In this era of player safety, it's a QB's world.  If Ben's box score from last week has you spooked, you can try pairing Rodgers with the PIT Moneyline (+120)...but I'm going all in on the BMOC.

For those who want to further handicap the BMOC (Big Man on Campus) straddle, the MVP award has been won by QBs 23 times  and by other position players 22 times, leaving the QBs at roughly 51%.  As Dov notes, you're paying 62% with the BMOC straddle, but he believes that times have changed and that we're living in a QB-centric world.

I noticed a ton of other interesting props myself.  As a reminder,  -120 means you have to bet $120 to win $100.  Likewise, +130 means you bet $100 to win $130:

"How Many Times will FOX show Jerry Jones on TV during the Game?"
(Wager is on the number of times Jerry Jones will appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager. Bodog's decisionis final.)

I like UNDER 2 1/2  -105     Jones will be all over the pregame, but he's unlikely to get much game footage unless someone punts the ball into the scoreboard or the roof gets stuck or something like that.  Perhaps there will be an interview at some point, but I doubt he'll pop up three times.


" How Many Times will FOX mention “Lockout” on TV during the Game? "
(Wager is on the number of times“Lockout”will be mentioned on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager, must say“Lockout”exactly. Bodog's decision is final.)
Take UNDER 1 1/2 - 130.   The NFL probably has a shock collar around Joe Buck's neck that will zap him if he even thinks about mentioning the word "lockout."

"Who will the FOX announcers say has better hair on TV during the Game? 
Must be a direct reference on TV during the Game comparing the 2 players hair or wagers will be graded as No Action (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager. Bodog's decision is final.
Troy Polamalu -120
Clay Matthews -120

Stay away from this one, even though it's likely to end in No Action - the announcers aren't supposed to pick favorites and won't step on this one.  The halftime crew might make a comment - it's unclear from the terms of the wager if that would be included.

"Will B.J.Raji be on the field for at least 1offensive play? "
Must play for action. Special Teams do not count towards wager.
This is a slam dunk at YES  -185.  The line opened at -180, so someone is already pounding the YES.

"What will happen with the Dow Jones the day after the Super Bowl? "

Are you kidding me?  UP -140 is like free money.  The market goes up every Monday! Buy the F'n Dip!  This is probably the best bet on the entire board.  I would actually bet this if I had a Bodog account.

"Will a Steelers player do the Aaron Rodgers Championship Belt Celebration during the game?"
Must clearly appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager. Bodog's decision is final.
I think that the YES +115 is a smart play - and I think I know who it will be - James Harrison, after delivering a brutal unnecessary roughness hit!

"If there is a picture of someone holding the Lombardi Trophy on the Cover of the USA Today on Monday February 7th, who will it be? "
If 2 or more people are holding trophy all wagers will be No Action. Must be a clear picture of 1 person holding the trophy or wagers will be No Action. Bodog's decision is final.
This is a variation of Dov's BMOC bet - I like Rodgers at 3/2 paired with Roethlisberger at 3/1.  Those two combine for a slightly worse payoff than the BMOC bet, but you get the benefit of the QB being the face of the team anyway even if he doesn't win the MVP

"What will be the Outcome of the Opening Kickoff? "

I love "Touchback" at 15/2.  Amped up kickers + indoor stadium = potential for an unreturnable kick.  Of course, amped up players mean anything less than 5 yards deep in the endzone is going to be taken out by the return team.

"Longest Touchdown Scored in the Game (Yardage)"
Offensive, Defensive and Special Teams touchdowns count towards wager. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager. Touchdown must be scored for wagers to have action.
Under 43 1/2 -115.  

"Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game "

Yes: +145

"Will either team successfully convert a 4th down attempt? "
Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager.
Yes -215.  Count on it.

There you have it - Kid Dynamite's prop handicapping.  As usual, my record is better as a contrarian indicator than a "follow" indicator, so if you actually make these bets because I said so you should have your head examined.

-KD


12 comments:

Purewater said...

Man, this almost makes me wish I worked for Christina Aguilera right now...talk about free money:

Will Christina Aguilera wear a cowboy hat while singing the National Anthem?

Will Christina Aguilera's hair color be anything except completely blonde when she sings the National Anthem?

getyourselfconnected said...

Where can you bet if you get a chance to straddle Christina Aguliera???

Dr. Pauly said...

Christina Aguilera sound checked the N.A., and it came in at 1:54. The line opened at 1:50. I got the OVER when it opened for -180.

Anonymous said...

What about the Gatorade hedge?

Orange (3:1) and Yellow (3:2)

getyourselfconnected said...

KD is snowed in!

Brian said...

Does the over win on the national anthem because she never technically sang it properly?

Kid Dynamite said...

Brian - I'd say NO ACTION cause she butchered the words and didn't sing it correctly! can't wait to see what the Books do with this...

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know the official count of Jerry Jones sightings? Did the under 2.5 prop win or lose?

Kid Dynamite said...

I don't have OFFICIAL data, but I only saw him once - in his luxury box with John Madden, GW Bush, Powell and Condi Rice

Jamie said...

Unreal! Christina missing an entire verse definitely changed that prop!

Kid Dynamite said...

to clarify, she didn't skip a verse - she started to repeat a verse - and ended up not singing the "o'er the ramparts" part, but she sang something else in its place. "What so proudly we watched at the twilight's last gleaming"

Anonymous said...

Actually, I prefer the NYT transcription of her mangling: "what so proudly we watched at the twilight's last reaming"