Ad Wizards

So if I were to give you the following phrases,

Sausage Sensation
Big Sausage Pizza

and ask you:

"Which is a) a late night movie on Skinimax, and which is b) a new offering from Papa John?" What would you say?

If you guessed a) for Sausage Sensation you're shit out of luck - Sausage Sensation is the new pizza from Papa John's! Who are the ad wizards that came up with this one?!?!?

Interestingly enough, Big Sausage Pizza is a porno on the Spice PPV channel, NOT a Papa John's menu item. So confusing. Alas, I have not yet had the pleasure of screening it.

In other ass-tastic news, Gavin Smith and Joe Sebok have upped the ante for their most recent Prop Bet - an ongoing series on Chops's RawVegas.TV.

The latest wager is a last longer bet for the $10k L.A. Poker Classic main event: whomever is eliminated first has to get the other person's initials tattooed on their ass. Talk about bad beats and backdoor draws...

Kid Dynamite and BigShow hit Vegas again Wednesday night - an unadulterated assault of poker, blackjack, PaiGow and beats that will hopefully produce some blogworthy material.

Until next time,

KD

No, thank you, I do NOT like money

So, I'm not really a "feel" player - but sometimes I will make a read and go with it... and I'll be wrong... or sometimes I'll be right:

The scene: 5-5 NL with a $10 straddle, slightly more sedate crew than normal. I have $600

Zack limps ($10)

Greg Limps.

Joe mucks, and I make it $60 to go, with black QQ

Glenn (tighter player) smooth calls.

Richie folds. Chris calls in the Small blind. Mike calls in the big blind. Zack calls. Greg calls

flop: 6 ways, $60 each: T-6-2 with the ten and 6 of clubs...

now, barring rainbow flops, and flops with queens, this is about as good a flop as I could diagram.

Mike checks.

Zack checks.

Greg bets $300.

I have $540 left, assume everyone covers me.

What's my action?

Now, Greg is a pretty loose player, but not an overly aggressive player. I do NOT think he'll bet a set like this. He may bet less, or he may check to trap, but he's really not sophisticated enough to bet a set assuming I'll call with an over pair (I have a relatively tight image in this game). I think it's QUITE likely he has two pair - as he's more than capable of playing T6 or T2 to close the action in a multiway pot.

I say "Greg - REALLY?"

"Yes. absolutely." he replies.

"Come on.. really? You're winning?"

"Yes," he says, and adds, "I cannot take it back."

Normally, this is an insta-call... but I think Greg has two pair. I'm almost sure of it.

"Seriously - you're winning?" I ask him again?"

"YES." no hesitation, pure confidence. Greg is also an honest, relatively straightforward player in situations like this. I decide to.. MUCK! I made a read an went with it - I gave Greg two pair. Also, I'm somewhat concerned with the presence of 5other players in the hand - I think they count for SOMETHING (small!)

Is this the worst lay down ever? Flame away. I named this post "lost in translation" because I feel like I COMPLETELY mis-applied what I had debated with others previously - about not getting tricky without good hands in this wild game...

The thing is, here, I had a good hand, on a PERFECT flop against a player who is probably NOT skilled enough to bet a SET here (yeah, that's SKILLED)... and the bottom line is, that if I decide my worst case is that I'm against two pair, i still have 25%-30% equity.

In reality, I think it's 70% Greg has two pair, 25% he has a ten and 5% he has a set or a straight + flush draw...if I add up my equity against those hands, I'm supposed to call.

on tilt because i folded,

Kid Dynamite

p.s. - not that it matters, but Greg showed a ten, and claimed K-T.. which I'm 95% sure is what he had. Not to mention that I'd spent 3 hours the night before with E-dub discussing strategy to apply to this game, where he concluded: "Just play sets and overpairs."

When asked how bad this laydown was, Jay "The Chairman" Greenspan answered: "It's bad."

I concurred with E-dub that on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 is the worst laydown I ever made, this laydown is at least a 7 to a 7 1/2.

The good news is: I'm of to Vegas on Wednesday with the BigShow for a gambling ASSAULT. This will be a multi-sigma event: may the force be with me.

Hound Dog

Mrs. Dynamite baked me cupcakes for Valentines Day. When I came home, they were arranged on the table like this:

Now, you may notice that there is one cupcake missing: the "A" cupcake after the heart. The little yellow stickie explains what happened to it: "Oscar got the "A"!"

Turns out my highly talented pooch stood up on his hind legs, pulled the "A" cupcake off the table while Mrs. Dynamite turned around to answer the phone, and dragged it into the bedroom where he licked the frosting off of it before he was caught. Quite an impressive heist, when you consider that he can barely reach the table when he stands on his hind legs.

Instead of being mad at him, we were impressed. The little guy is impossible to get mad at.

Until next time,

KD

Live from Vegas

Big Show called me from Vegas with an important question:

"All blackjacks at O'Shea's pay 6-5 - not just the single deck game. How do I neutralize that edge?"

"Easy," I explained, "Increase your wager!" Marty UP baby!

I'm not in Vegas with the crew, but Big Show is keeping me up on the Brooke Hogan sightings, and the trials and tribulations of partying at Tryst with Dwayne Wade.

At the gym yesterday, I decided to hit the treadmill. I'm still recovering from my busted knee, so I haven't really run much, but I got there just in time to tune in to the climactic fight between Rocky and Apollo at the end of Rocky II. Talk about motivation. You probably forget how great these scenes were - although Rocky II was a slow, boring movie in general, the final fight is one of the all time great adrenaline scenes of all time. And the subtle comedy:

Rocky, waiting in the ring with Mick, as Apollo makes his entrance: "It's Apollo."

Micky: "Who'd ya expect?"

Rocky: "I was hoping he wouldn't show." Great stuff.

By the time Rocky told Micky "I ain't goin' down no more," I was hauling ass on the treadmill. As Rocky pulled himself to his feet for the victory, and gave his classic "Except for my son being born, this is the greatest night in the history of my life.... Yo Adrian.. I DID IT," speech, I was cranking at a heart rate of 180. I had further motivation as Rocky III was on immediately afterwards, but I was in no shape to continue.

Earlier in the week, Dirty Dave and I had a deeply analytical discussion on IM. Although neither of us are Investment Bankers, we are both close enough to it (he's a salesman, I'm a trader) to recognize value when we see it:

KidDynamite (7:53:00 AM): talks of MGM being a possible bidder forHET... how would that be allowed? they are basically the only two bigboys left!!! antitrust wouldn't work right?

DirtyDave (7:54:25 AM): Cannot see that happening at all.

KidDynamite (7:54:31 AM): no way

KidDynamite (7:54:36 AM): WHOLE strip! (minus o'sheas!)

DirtyDave (7:54:39 AM): Isn;t PE for HET facing enough regulatory scrutiny?

KidDynamite (7:54:55 AM): it will get done with the PE

KidDynamite (7:55:09 AM): they may have to sell the IP back to the market though! get your bid ready!

KidDynamite (7:55:19 AM): Capitano is your inside man! and i have Frank !

DirtyDave (7:55:24 AM): lol

DirtyDave (7:55:38 AM): I got the briefcase of cash ready

DirtyDave(7:56:02 AM): Gonna spin off the buffet and unlock full value

KidDynamite (7:56:12 AM): spin out the dry-erase board sports book!

DirtyDave(7:56:16 AM): yes!

KidDynamite (7:56:21 AM): spin out the Dealertainers!

KidDynamite (7:56:25 AM): and the on-floor security!

KidDynamite (7:56:36 AM): and the Geisha bar!!! there is SO MUCH VALUE!

DirtyDave (7:56:59 AM): Sum up those parts and you basically are getting the Auto Museum for free!!

KidDynamite (7:57:06 AM): !!!! lolol

DirtyDave (7:57:37 AM): Sick idea

KidDynamite (7:57:50 AM): i'll make a powerpoint presentation, you work on the IRR Excel sheet

Yes. This is my life. Reduced to making jokes about Private Equity taking over the Imperial Palace and spinning out the pieces to unlock the value. If only.

until next time.

KD

Romance

Happy Valentine's Day!

Teddy Bear courtesy of Elizabeth.

-KD

The Bracelet

My in-laws were in town last weekend, but so was Bobby Bracelet. I had to explain to my wife that I had to go meet The Bracelet out at a bar.

"I have to go meet someone," I knew this might get confusing for her.

"Who?" She was immediately suspicious.

"Some guy I met on the Internet," wow - that really didn't come out right. She returned a quizzical, doubtful raised eyebrow.

"He's a blogger, and he was the 860th best poker player in the world as of a few years ago," I explained.

"So you're basically this guy's groupie because he's a good poker player?" She inquired, as I immediately laughed out loud.

"No, it's more because of his legendary Huge Junk status," she had no clue what I was talking about, and I was digging myself a deeper and deeper hole.

I cruised over to the normally too cool for school LES (that's Lower East Side for all you non-cool kids), and was pleasantly surprised that the crew, consisting of F-train, Dawn & Karol, and Bobby Beergoggles had chosen a bar that didn't have any hipster kids wearing top hats. The bartender carded me at the door - DO YOU KNOW WHO THE FUCK I AM?

It didn't take long for me to witness the power of the Huge Junk in action, as more than one doe-eyed young (and I mean YOUNG) lady sent vibes in Bob's direction. Of course, I was standing right next to Bob, so it's quite likely that Kid Dynamite still has the kevorka, but I'll give Bob the benefit of the doubt.

Unfortunately for him, Bobby "The floor is moving" Blasted was too worn out from the night before, and too inebriated to capture his prey. After several rounds, some talk of TGOD's, and poker; Bob, F-train and I eventually tapped out, as Karol was persistently angling for shots.

Thus the long anticipated collision of the worlds of Kid Dynamite and Bobby Bracelet ended somewhat uneventfully, but with promise of future debauchery.

The week since then has been a lesson in futility for Mrs. Dynamite, who spent the week dealing with Dell and Microsoft's outsourced technical support. Our home pc crashed last weekend, a result of my dipshit neighbor deciding that the best way to fix a blown fuse was to repeatedly fick every circuit breaker in the master box, which resulted in our power going on and off multiple times for a few seconds. Somehow, though it wasn't a power surge issue, this resulted in the frying of our hard drive. Mrs. Dynamite didn't have the operating system discs to re-install everything, so she went out and bought Vista. When the install wouldn't work, she spent the day on the phone with Dell, who eventually concluded that the hard drive was fried, and happily charged her three times market rate for a new on. She eventually managed to get everything straightened out, so now I'm back in business.

Ship it.

-KD

oh - p.s. - the National Anthem at the Super Bowl came in UNDER by a mile: 1:30 by my clock. Dirty Dave had it right again. Aiyahh!

Validation

I mean seriously - now I know I've made it...

Kid Dynamite's world shows up on the first page on Google Search if you type in "O-Ring Blowout." I feel like a proud papa.

Not only that, but this site is the number two listing on MSN's search for anyone looking for "Ed Reed Human Ball Magnet."

ship it.

-KD

Mad Props: National Anthem

Big Show, in an attempt to bring me out of retirement and put me on full tilt by running up a fresh deficit at the end of the NFL season "(which would doubtlessly lead to me handicapping WNBA games), shot me a list of Super Bowl prop bets. One that stood out was:

"Length of time it takes Billy Joel to sing the National Anthem: 1 minute 44 seconds"

Over: -115

Under: -125

Now, I'm a big fan of the National Anthem. I think it goes back to my Boston Garden youth days - even watching on tv - when Rene Rancourt would sing the National Anthem at a Bruins playoff game, you wouldn't be able to hear him by the final verse: the crowd would be screaming so loud.

Now, living in New York City in the post Sept. 11th world, the Anthem is still always an emotional event. I always try to make it to sporting events on time, if for no other reason than to see the National Anthem.

More importantly though, I thought this prop line was beatable. I immediately conferred with the ultimate degenerate, Dirty Dave, who liked the angle, and set off on his own research.

Today, Dirty Dave came back to me with a YouTube video of Billy Joel singing the National Anthem at the 2000 World Series in Yankee Stadium. He clocked in at 1:40. Now, there are several mitigating factors here, and we set off analysing it like the Zapruder video:

1) The World Series is big, but it's not the Super Bowl

2) Billy Joel is a native New Yorker, and actually seemed a little nervous on his home stage.

3) Billy sang the Anthem about as quickly as he could - not really any pauses, and only one real drawn out note ("and the lannnnnd of the freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee") - there is clearly room for pauses or more long notes.

Dave thought the under was a slam dunk. "Presidential approval ratings are highly correlated with the length of the National Anthem," he postulated brilliantly.

"Please work up the covariance matrix," I demanded, leaving nothing to chance.

"the R squared is running .96" Dave had it on the tip of his tongue.

I was worried about another factor: booze. I mean, a few shots of Johnny Black, and suddenly Billy, who's no stranger to the bottle, slurs a word, forgets his next line, and blam, we're at 2 minutes easy. Dave wasn't buying it "No way - clean and sober," he corrected me. "But Dave, we're talking about the fucking SUPER BOWL here - Billy is a top notch professional, but he may very well have a drink to calm his nerves, and is likely to take his time, enjoying the spotlight." Big Show added, "I'm sure he'll have a driver, so that won't be an issue."

I continued my own research, looking up past Super Bowl National Anthem videos, and coming up with the following evidence:

Whitney Houston: SB XXV: 1:55 (Persian Gulf)

Cher: SB XXXIII: 1:45

FaithHill: SB XXXIV: 2:00

Mariah Carey: SB XXXVI: 1:54

Dixie Chicks: SB XXXVII 1:32

Beyonce: SB XXXVIII: 2:07

With the exception of the Dixie Chicks, who were clearly out of their league, all the times came in over 1:44. Whitney, Mariah, and Beyonce and Faith Hill are all divas who really like to whale on their high notes, and are on the upper end of the spectrum. The Dixie Chicks wanted to get out of the global spotlight, and rushed through it. Cher did a pretty much no-nonsense version, seeming like she'd drag out the last verse, but wrapped it up tight. I can see Billy Joel smiling for the camera as he pauses professionally before bellowing: "And the hooooooooome, of the bravvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvve," as the clock hits 1:52.

I then checked a few non-super bowl events, and found that Jessica Simpson's NFC Championship performance came in sub 1:40, as did Kelly Clarkson's renditions. This lends credence to the fact that the Super Bowl anthem is likely to take longer than Billy's World Series Anthem.

Big Show clarified the exact rules: "Time starts when Billy Joel sings the first note: Action is on Anthem only."

Dirty Dave realized "So if he busts into Captain Jack the under is safe!!!" Again, ladies and gentlemen, the incomparable Dirty Dave.

We couldn't help but take our NASA level analysis to the market analogy extreme, as Dave mocked, "I hear one guy had sold it futures style (meaning the longer the anthem goes, the more money he loses) and was panicking to hedge out his Piano Man risk," before we found out about the "Action is on Anthem only" inane clause.

In the end, Dave was adamant on the "under," but I think the risks lean toward the "over," especially given the slightly better price (-115 vs -125)

For a legendary Anthem-related performance, check out this awesome clip from Boston where the fans gave a raucous standing ovation during the CANADIAN national anthem to basically say "Suck It" to the Montreal fans who had booed the U.S. Anthem in Canada. This is from the Fleet Centre, not the Boston Garden, but the crowd noise is insane, and it's the legendary Rene Rancourt. Imagine every game being like that. Goose bumps.

I give props to the Canadian Anthem too - they can do it right. However, the best Anthem ever is this one from the NHL all star game in Chicago in 1991 at the start of the Gulf War. Probably the best rendition you'll ever find on video. And that's why I love the National Anthem. Hit it hard Billy Joel.

Until next time,

KD