Friday, February 23, 2007

No, thank you, I do NOT like money

So, I'm not really a "feel" player - but sometimes I will make a read and go with it... and I'll be wrong... or sometimes I'll be right:

The scene: 5-5 NL with a $10 straddle, slightly more sedate crew than normal. I have $600

Zack limps ($10)

Greg Limps.

Joe mucks, and I make it $60 to go, with black QQ

Glenn (tighter player) smooth calls.

Richie folds. Chris calls in the Small blind. Mike calls in the big blind. Zack calls. Greg calls

flop: 6 ways, $60 each: T-6-2 with the ten and 6 of clubs...

now, barring rainbow flops, and flops with queens, this is about as good a flop as I could diagram.

Mike checks.

Zack checks.

Greg bets $300.

I have $540 left, assume everyone covers me.

What's my action?

Now, Greg is a pretty loose player, but not an overly aggressive player. I do NOT think he'll bet a set like this. He may bet less, or he may check to trap, but he's really not sophisticated enough to bet a set assuming I'll call with an over pair (I have a relatively tight image in this game). I think it's QUITE likely he has two pair - as he's more than capable of playing T6 or T2 to close the action in a multiway pot.

I say "Greg - REALLY?"

"Yes. absolutely." he replies.

"Come on.. really? You're winning?"

"Yes," he says, and adds, "I cannot take it back."

Normally, this is an insta-call... but I think Greg has two pair. I'm almost sure of it.

"Seriously - you're winning?" I ask him again?"

"YES." no hesitation, pure confidence. Greg is also an honest, relatively straightforward player in situations like this. I decide to.. MUCK! I made a read an went with it - I gave Greg two pair. Also, I'm somewhat concerned with the presence of 5other players in the hand - I think they count for SOMETHING (small!)

Is this the worst lay down ever? Flame away. I named this post "lost in translation" because I feel like I COMPLETELY mis-applied what I had debated with others previously - about not getting tricky without good hands in this wild game...

The thing is, here, I had a good hand, on a PERFECT flop against a player who is probably NOT skilled enough to bet a SET here (yeah, that's SKILLED)... and the bottom line is, that if I decide my worst case is that I'm against two pair, i still have 25%-30% equity.

In reality, I think it's 70% Greg has two pair, 25% he has a ten and 5% he has a set or a straight + flush draw...if I add up my equity against those hands, I'm supposed to call.

on tilt because i folded,

Kid Dynamite

p.s. - not that it matters, but Greg showed a ten, and claimed K-T.. which I'm 95% sure is what he had. Not to mention that I'd spent 3 hours the night before with E-dub discussing strategy to apply to this game, where he concluded: "Just play sets and overpairs."

When asked how bad this laydown was, Jay "The Chairman" Greenspan answered: "It's bad."

I concurred with E-dub that on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 is the worst laydown I ever made, this laydown is at least a 7 to a 7 1/2.

The good news is: I'm of to Vegas on Wednesday with the BigShow for a gambling ASSAULT. This will be a multi-sigma event: may the force be with me.

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